When I earlier predicted that the Miami Heat would beat the Dallas Mavericks in six games, I didn't state my reasons why. I was on vacation, staying up as late as 4 a.m. to catch the playoffs, so writing was the furthest thing from my mind.
I've never hidden the fact that I am a Heat fan so I'm sure it's no surprise I'm picking them to win it. But too many people assume my pick is solely based on this factor. You're wrong. It has nothing to do with being a fan and everything to do with the fact that it's almost impossible to defeat a team that has two of the five best players in the league in a seven-game series. And just in case you're wondering who, though I can't imagine anyone would at this point, I mean Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.
Last night's game proved that. Not quite playing at its best and with two of its 'big three' struggling offensively, the Heat still escaped with a two-point win despite a 34-point showing by Dirk Nowitzki. How? Easy. It's that age-old saying that two heads are better than one. Or in this case, three. Or five. Overall the Heat struggled as a team in spurts, blowing a 14-point lead in the fourth, but it got key moments from Wade, James, Bosh, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem. The Mavericks? Well, they made it all about the Nowitzki show. And he alone can't down the Heat in a best of seven series.
When the Heat blew a 15-point lead in Game 2, losing 95-93 on Nowitzki's game-winner, I entertained calls and messages from people who couldn't wait to tell me I was wrong. Now I wonder what they have to say. Here's the thing. Miami's known for showing flashes of brilliance then blowing games on moments of complacency. It mirrors the Heat's regular season when it countered long winning streaks with an almost equally losing one. It mirrors its playoff run when it looked like the Heat would sweep through Philadelphia, but characteristically lost Game 4. And a blow out loss in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to Chicago before rallying four straight wins.
So blowing Game 2 at home against the Mavs was characteristic of a typical Miami meltdown. But the Heat have only allowed one such occurrence in each series en route to the finals. Yes Game 3 came close, but this time it was more to do with the unstoppable Nowitzki with some help from a few questionable officiating calls late in the fourth. Don't believe me? Try explaining how the Heat dominated the Mavs 40-22 in scoring in the paint, but ended up with 12 fewer free throws? Think it had anything to do with Miami hoisting 19 3-point attempts? Dallas took two more. And the Heat (34-78) took eight more field goal attempts than Dallas (28-70.)
But questioning the officiating only goes so far, and can hardly be proven anyway, so when it came down to it, the Heat did what I've long argued they would. They outplayed the Mav's lone star--pun intended-- with major help from Chalmers (12 points) and Haslem (defended Nowitzki's potential game-tying shot at the buzzer,) two of the supposed non-existent role players critics argued the team had sacrificed when it signed James and Bosh in the off-season. It has also had small, but significant contributions from Mike Miller, Joel Anthony and Mike Bibby. Last night Dallas got 15 points from Jason Terry, none in the fourth quarter, and 10 from Shawn Marion. Both are the only other players to score in double figures in all three games so far for Dallas. Tyson Chandler, the Mavs 7-foot center scored 13 in Game 2, but managed a weak 5 points on two fouls in Game 3. His 11 rebounds tied for the game's highest. Nowitzki, also a 7-footer, also grabbed 11 rebounds, as well as the 6-foot-4 Wade.
What do these few statistics, pulled from the many that support my argument, tell you? That the Mavs biggest contributors cannot topple the Heat's. They may come close especially if all of Miami's stars aren't dialed in at the same time, but they'll fall short in the best of 7 series. They tell you that Dirk justifies the comparisons to one of the game's greatest scorers in Larry Bird, but isn't enough to carry his team past Miami's own stars. They tell you that the Mavs would offer a commendable effort worthy of boosting the finals ratings, but the Heat will come out on top.
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